Cowboys can do what history shows '09 Eels should have

EIGHT years after crestfallen Parramatta lost a grand final to the formidable Melbourne Storm, North Queensland have an opportunity to claim the legitimate title that only cheating could rob the Eels of.

The parallels between the Eels of 2009 and the Cowboys of 2017 are both near and far.

The Cowboys have burned their former Allianz stadium curse, winning twice at the venue in the 2017 NRL Finals. 

Both snuck into the finals in eighth position, but only one had a strong run home with a string of victories.

Both, were at one stage in the season listed as $151 to win the title.

Both have a group of players playing without fear or favour of their opposition, but only one was missing their two co-captains for most of the season.

One most definitely had an individual performance that single-handedly propelled them in the grand final, but both have a broad collection of no-nonsense players who have lifted to their potential.

Think Jeff Robson, Joel Reddy and Ben Smith for the Eels, and think Shaun Fensom, Scott Bolton and John Asiata for the Cowboys.

And with destructive capacity, both sides have a forward who can lift and inspire their team with game-changing runs. You’ll know of Jason Taumalolo, but will you have remembered the impact of Fui Fui Moi Moi.

Crucially, Taumalolo now knows he can have an impact similar to Moi Moi's.

Eight years is a long time though, so how has the constant in this equation – The Storm – changed?

Same coach, same captain, same halfback, same fullback. 

That’s some consistency in a first-grade football side given their commercial influences of the modern game.

On paper, the Storm side this time around is considerably weaker than in 2009. And it should be, given the ’09 side was close to a million dollars over the salary cap.

But it’s a side still with attacking potency and muscle in defence, albeit with a different crop of men.

The main difference, is the age of Melbourne’s big three. Do they possess eight more years of experience? Or do they have they eight more years of slowing down?

Cameron Smith’s second Dally M this week, Billy Slater’s fullback-of-the-year award and incredible comeback from two season-ending injuries this season, along with Cooper Cronk’s ability to guide Queensland to another Origin series’ victory probably suggest the former.

But it was there in Smith’s performance in game one of Origin, in the match against the Eels in the first week of the NRL Finals, and again in the win over Brisbane last week. The mistakes, slow starts, un-Melbourne like decisions in their play.

The Storm are most certainly beatable and the Cowboys must believe it. That’s how they should view the Storm’s big three; older, slower, weaker.

Melbourne no longer have a career-best Ryan Hoffman or arguably one of the game's best-ever centres in Greg Inglis.

But of the men who adorn the rest of the positions on the park is perhaps where the game will be won. Grand finals are a different ball-game. Nerves can get the better of the sharpest and calmest player.

Until last weekend, I didn’t even know who Melbourne’s centre Curtis Scott was. Perhaps naïve, but equally, who the hell is North Queensland’s John Asiata?  

Melbourne have 11 players backing up from their 2016 grandfinal loss to Cronulla. Quite a number looking to exact revenge and make up for the lost chance.

But just as similarly, North Queensland have 12 players in their line-up who played in their 2015 grand final win over Brisbane.

You have to wonder what the betting lines would be like if Johnathan Thurston and Matt Scott were playing on Sunday. Surely, near-on-par.

But that’s the thing, without those two, there is absolutely no pressure on the Cowboys. They’re meant to be on holidays by now. Who cares how far they go? No one expected them to come this far.

Meant to be kicking back grabbing a sun tan, rather than a premiership winner's medal.

The pressure is on the Melbourne Storm, really. They lost in 2016 and have been the best all season as proven by their minor premiership.

Craig Bellamy will look to limit the impact of Taumalolo and Morgan, while Paul Green will hope to shut down the influence of Smith and Cronk.

The key players who can seriously influence this result are Melbourne’s wingers, Suliasi Vunivalu and Josh Addo-Carr, and the Cowboys’ forwards Gavin Cooper, Ethan Lowe and off the bench – Cohen Hess.

Can the outside-flyers find the space to put points on the board for the Storm? Likewise, can the cutting runs of the Cowboys hole-runners nab the two or three defining tries usually seen on grand final day?

SECRET WEAPON: Cohen Hess has scored on 10 different occasions this season; in three of those he got a double.

Parramatta lost on the day in 2009, but history showed they were playing against an un-even spread of talent.

This time, for the Cowboys – and the Storm – the ledges are squared.

They might be missing the world’s best player, but at least North Queensland can know they’re not facing an unconquerable side.  

But they don’t fear anyone, anyway, right? They’re meant to be on holidays.

Prediction: Cowboys to have two titles to their name by Monday to go with their new stadium being built next season that Johnathan Thurston called for after winning their first in 2015.

Fresh-faced Kangaroos' World Cup backline

On Tuesday night at the Rugby League Players’ Association awards Jarryd Hayne declared he would be forgoing the opportunity to be selected in the Australian squad for the Rugby League World Cup and electing to represent his heritage of Fiji. 

The consummate fullback who first played with Fiji at the 2008 World Cup held in Australia, before then representing Australia at the 2013 tournament held in England and Wales, said the time has come to let the new kids on the block step forth. 

The Australian Kangaroos  Image: RLWC2017

“It’s pretty obvious with the amount of talent and the amount of depth they’ve got,” Hayne told 7 News Sydney.

“I’m pushing 29 now, so I’m a bit older. 

"These young guys definitely deserve their spot.”

.@JarrydHayne is preparing to play for his native Fiji at the @RLWC2017. @josh_massoud #RLWC2017 #7News pic.twitter.com/j1IDzQbquS

— 7 News Sydney (@7NewsSydney) September 12, 2017

While Hayne has chosen to go back to the future in a typically enigmatic decision, he has raised a debatable point about just who Mal Meninga will choose to select in his Kangaroos’ squad for the 15^th edition of the historic tournament. 

In particular, who he will blood in some of the prized positions across the Australian backline. 

Meninga, a coach known for his loyalty to his incumbent players, has indicated in the past that he views the green and gold jersey as one that should be filled by the best player available, regardless of their age.

 Will Meninga stay loyal to Josh Dugan? Photo: Sitthixay Ditthavong 

Given the strength built from the Queensland dynasty which Mal oversaw and the combinations built at the Melbourne Storm, you can assume Billy Slater will likely fill the fullback position with Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk to play hooker, and halfback, respectively. 

Indeed, you could likely say Dane Gagai and Will Chambers are almost certain starters.

But with Greg Inglis and Johnathan Thurston unavailable for the tournament through injury, many questions remain about the rest of the backs. 

On the advice of Jarryd Hayne, here’s a remarkably skilful crop of youngsters who could fill some of the vacant spots in the back five positions come October in a proposed alternative line-up.

Fullback: Tom Trbojevic

Trbojevic’s rise into first grade has been well-beyond the expectations of any 20-year-old in the game. After debuting on the wing in 2015 at just age 18, the Manly junior has filled the void left by Brett Stewart and given us a ‘fresh prince of Brookvale’ with his sensational style of play. 

The dynamic and silky ball runner has never looked out of place on an NRL field and provides a tremendous work ethic from the back for his club side. Yet to play any representative football, Trobjevic has racked up 55 appearances for Manly over the last three years and looks more than ready to make the jump.

An equally as prolific try-scorer as the first prince of Brookie – Brett Stewart – Trobjevic already has 30 tries to his name and would provide incredibly back-up for Slater throughout the six-week competition. 

Wing: Valentine Holmes

Holmes was given the opportunity to play State of Origin football this year by Kevin Walters and he didn’t disappoint, scoring on debut and finishing the series with a hat-trick in the deciding fixture.

Earlier in the year Kangaroos coach Mal Meninga again handed him a national jersey following his successful Four Nation’s tour last season and the Cronulla Sharks' premiership win.

The fact that he represented Australia before he had played Origin given it’s such a rare occurrence in today’s game is enough for Holmes’ not-so-hot club form to be overlooked. Having already played in the national side and now sure to become a permanent presence in the Maroons squad, Holmes is a must for this alternative line-up at the ripe age of just 22. 

Centre: James Roberts 

One of the game’s most lethal attacking weapons, James Roberts' national career should begin at the RLWC in 2017. How he hasn’t played any rep football outside of the indigenous game and a sole City-Origin appearance in 2015 is bemusing. 

While critics will lament his defensive deficiencies, the 24-year-old Brisbane centre is a line-crosser Meninga can no longer ignore. Should the Brisbane Broncos go deep into the NRL Finals, it will likely mean Roberts has plastered his name across the try-scorers’ list.

And while in the past Roberts may have crossed the line off the field, there is no man who could command his trust more than Meninga.

With 17 tries for the Broncos in 2017 from 24 starts, and 58 in a 101-game career so far, Roberts has earned his place. 

Centre: Latrell Mitchell 

Having almost instantly been compared to one of the best centres to ever play the game in Greg Inglis when he came onto the scene in 2016, Latrell Mitchell was probably always going to have a dip in his form after such a scintillating debut season. 

   

But the mid-year shift back to reserve grade and trip up the F3 to play with the Wyong Roos didn’t dent the 20-year-old desire. In fact, it probably made him even hungrier, as the naturally-gifted Taree-product has score as many tries in his second season as he did his first – 14. He has even done it in two less games this time round.

As the youngest player in the backline of youth, Mitchell will need plenty of support should he enter the Kangaroos’ set-up but he will certainly not look out of place. He dusts off the defenders of any team that comes his way and shifts past the men many years his senior like they’re static pieces of training equipment.

 

Wing: Corey Oates

While the form of Dane Gagai in the Origin arena makes him impossible to ignore for selection, these back five have been selected on the premise of youth and at 26, Gagai has just slipped out of consideration. But in his place comes the Broncos’ teetering tower of destruction. 

A rangy winger polar opposite to the icons who previously adorned the edges for Brisbane, Oates has lit-up Suncorp Stadium since 2013, scoring 59 tries in 95 NRL games. If that resume doesn’t scream that his potency to make opposition teams pay, I’m not sure we’re selecting teams the correct way. Even in his four games for Queensland, Oates has nabbed two tries. Impressive, given the traditionally low-scoring affairs.

One element Oates brings different to his fellow players, and one that will be well-needed against potential oppositions, is his height. At six-foot, four inches tall, the 22-year-old will be able to match it with the likes of some of his counterparts, including the athletic Fijian Suliasi Vunivalu.  

The potentially raw and new Kangaroos' line-up.

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Moylan move could dent Panthers revival

The surprising suggestion that Penrith skipper Matt Moylan could be on the way out of the Panthers organisation has the potential to leave the club’s revival with tainted and irreversible damage.

Make no mistake, Matt Moylan is the pin-up boy of the Penrith Panthers. 

He’s talented, has football nous and is a local prodigy. He plays a key position on the field, and is marketable, sleek and has the model looks off it.

PRODIGAL: Matt Moylan. 

If you rewind to Gus Gould’s arrival back at the Nepean in 2011, you’ll remember the gutting and broomstick he put through the club’s roster. You’ll remember the overhaul of the business, the bold statements about being the country’s most recognisable sports brand, and the now infamous five-year plan.

While you might question many of Gus’ claims and hang the plans out to dry, it is undeniable that the influence of Gould has almost single-handedly turned a floundering franchise into an NRL powerhouse.

Just this week, the club put out a statement detailing how every one of their sides had made the finals for only the fourth time in the club’s 50-plus year history. And in a first, they have achieved for a second consecutive year.  

Gould’s revolution was kick-started in 2012 when he brought in Ivan Cleary and began the turnaround.

Almost parallel to the new era was the emergence of Baulkham Hills-born Matt Moylan. 

A local junior who was first off what would turn into a conveyer-belt of NRL players produced from the local Penrith district.

Bryce Cartwright and Matt Moylan have been the leading figures in Penrith's impressive junior-to-NRL transmission rate. 

At fullback, Moylan played in arguably the most prodigious position on the field outside of the traditional owner of rugby league sides, the halfback.  

His playing talents quickly shone through; he began to find his feet in the media appearing on The Footy Show as a regular; and his quick-wit, humour and good looks would have had marketing guru’s rubbing their hands together.

He fitted in perfectly to the commercial and operational redesign of the Panthers at-large. So much so, in 2016 he was handed the club’s captaincy.

It was a valiant decision, and with a squad so young it had the potential to work.

Without drawing a comparison too wild, Moylan has a tinge of former Liverpool footballer Steven Gerrard about him. And so does his situation.

Local junior, poster boy, all the talent in the world, the ability to influence others through his own actions.

POSTER BOY: Moylan appears to have it all. 

But what he hasn’t fully captured yet is the persistence of effort, a resilience. 

In the age of modern-day footballers, it’s probably no surprise. But will this be the career-defining learning curve for Moylan, or the signal of the end of his time at Penrith?

In 2015, Gus Gould made an eerily similar and surprising decision to sack then Panthers coach Ivan Cleary and bring in Anthony Griffin.  

At the time it was odd and didn’t really make sense.

While the merits of that decision are a debate for another article, Moylan was still able to continue his rise under new coach Griffin.

He made the New South Wales side, Australian squad and was instrumental in the club’s run into the finals last season.

All while wearing the captain’s metaphorical armband. So it’s hard to work out wear it’s all gone wrong.

MIXED FORM: Penrith's form this year has been indifferent, but they've made the finals. 

Indeed, maybe both parties have reasons for wanting a change.

It Moylan is unhappy and dismayed with his current predicament, maybe a move would be best the best thing for him. A shift away from the prodigal son paradigm.

Maybe the Panthers have realised they don’t have the full deck of cards required to achieve their goal of winning another premiership and see the departure of Moylan as a way of securing what or who they need.

Like the loss of Cleary, perhaps to get where you want to go, you don’t always arrive with those who you thought you would.

But there would be a real sense of disenchantment if Matt Moylan wasn’t involved in completing Penrith’s revival.

He’s been at the front of it, at the back of it, and in the thick of it.

Chronologically, in a positional sense, and in terms of the operation respectively. 

Why Gus Gould must finally answer Blues SOS

Andrew Johns was peppered with questions from Paul Vautin on Wednesday night during the post-match review about coaching New South Wales, but Vautin asked the wrong man on the panel.

He should have directed the questioning at Phil Gould. 

IT'S TIME: No coach would have more influence for embattled NSW than Gould.

Johns, a more than creditable more coaching option for the Blues, refused to answer one-way or another about whether he would take on the representative role.

Citing the need to not have the pressure that coaching could bring to his life, Johns would no doubt offer an irresistible passion and thirst to overthrow the now historic Maroons side. 

Considering his lack of head-coaching experience is a valid thought line, but he’s expertise and status in the game would far outweigh any need for a resume of credentials. 

Perhaps the far-better option is to consider hauling NSW’s most experienced and successful Origin coach in the game’s history out of his Penrith seclude.

Gould has transformed the Panthers into a formidable force in the National Rugby League during his time as General Manager, both on and off the field. 

He has pushed club favourites out the door, recruited numerous players to the club, signed many of the western-Sydney league nurseries’ talents to long-term deals, constructed one of the best sport’s headquarters in Australia and enabled the complete turnaround of one the league’s most viable clubs. 

While ‘Gus’ has been busy working on his five-year plan in his office-chair and boardroom role for quite some time, along with his extensive media commitments, he has basically not been involved in coaching since his last stint with NSW ended in 2004. 

WINNER: Gould is the most successful Blues coach ever.

Now, as Laurie Daley would attest, coaching a State of Origin side is not a year-round commitment.

Yes, you have to watch players throughout the NRL season to keep track of the moments and form, but it hardly consumes your life.

As one of the best minds in Rugby League, Gould could probably pick his side off the top of his head without having watched as little as a minute of a season. 

The biggest effect Gould would have on the players of today is the size of his aura and presence.

Players would cease to talk when he walked in a room. The entire squad would respond to his status and ability as a coach. No-one would be caught putting in half-arse efforts. 

It would be no non-sense, 100 per cent commitment from Gould that would categorically bring out the best in each and every individual. 

Before NSW broke the drought in 2014, Gould sat on the channel 9 panel and was asked similar questions to Johns. He refused to step in and save the Blues.

If Andrew Johns is feeling ‘sick’ after watching the Blues lose another series, I would love to know Gus Gould’s true inner-opinion. 

Blatchy’s Blues are bleeding. The state is embarrassed. Players’ confidence has been shot.

Eleven QLD series wins from the last 12 attempts, 

or,

One NSW series win in the past 12 years. 

It’s time to answer the call, Gus.

The Monthly Probe: May

The May edition of The Monthly Probe podcast.

Hosted by Max McKinney & Matt Writer. 

The Monthly Probe: April

April edition of The Monthly Probe podcast.

Hosted by Max McKinney & Matt Writer

NRL 2017: Rabbitohs, Dragons, Roosters, Tigers.

Can the boys from the Eastern Suburbs find their 2013 form again?

South Sydney – Prediction 4^th

A really poor year for the Rabbits in 2016, and they’ll be looking to make amends. They have a refreshed feel to them this year with Robbie Farah coming in, and with the Burgess brothers now all settled down with wives and kids, they should keep focussed on footy and out of the social pages.

A lot of eyes will be on how Farah fits into the system, but I think it will be more intriguing to see how the rest of the squad already there recovers from last season. Inglis and Reynolds both need to step-up, not to mention the Burgess’ brothers. All are premiership-winning players and need to hit the reset button on their enthusiasm because they’re the ones who drive the culture of the club.

Predicting Michael Maguire to take his side back to the upper-etches of the NRL ladder and into September. For me, they’ll make the top four.

St. George-Illawarra Dragons – Prediction 16^th

A club in complete disarray. What more can be said? They’ve been on the slide since Wayne Bennett left years ago, and they’re direction and recruitment has to be questioned. Club legend Paul ‘Mary’ McGregor has been left to clean up the poor decisions of others and made to look like a fool.

Outside of Dugan and Frizell they have no real high-quality players and the use of Dugan at right centre is mind-boggling considering he was once mentioned as the ‘next Billy Slater’ while emerging at Canberra. He must play fullback and he needs to return to his running-game strength that made him a star in the lime green.

McGregor moved on Benji Marshall last season which was a bold but needed decision, and was planning on using NSW Cup winning halfback Drew Hutchinson only for him to do an ACL in the preseason. Would be using this year to blood a heap of youngsters like Newcastle did last season and look towards a big 2018. 

Sydney Roosters – Prediction 2^nd

The Roosters will be the most-improved side in 2017, mark my words. After 12 months of horror, Mitchell Pearce will have a burning desire to help the Chooks back towards success. He is the player with the biggest point to prove in the NRL this year, and will reach his best form since they won the comp in 2013.

Connor Watson has already placed a heap of pressure on Luke Keary to steal the five-eighth position, but will likely be used in a utility role off the bench. Their core bunch of players are very experienced and have played together for a number of years, so I’m expecting big things from the Tri-Colours this season.

Look out for Latrell Mitchell, Blake Ferguson and Shaun Kenny-Dowell to cross the white line more often than a school-crossing supervisor.

Wests Tigers – Prediction 13^th

A make or break year for the Tigers this season, and with their swagger of stars off-contract at the end of the year, it could be a make or break on the upcoming future of the club. The trio of Moses, Brooks and Tedesco have played enough NRL games now to handle the pressure and gone will be the young and learning tag.

Jason Taylor will be under tremendous pressure from the fans if they get off to a poor start, and if that’s the case it could make the re-signing of their big names a distraction and hamper their season.

Don’t have the cattle up front to be able to knock over the best clubs on a regular basis, and will struggle to match it with the bigger sides. Could surprise though and with a bit of momentum I wouldn’t be shocked if they went on a run.

NRL 2017: Broncos, Raiders, Bulldogs, Sharks.

Two of these clubs will miss the Top 8. Who will it be?

Brisbane Broncos – Prediction: 6^th

Arguably a make-or-break year for Wayne Bennett despite being the Godfather of the Red Hill franchise. Bad results early on will result in a tonne of media pressure for a club hell-bent on success. But in all honesty, with the experts writing them off, Bennett will be in his element. When I look at this Broncos squad, I think they’re in for a tough year. But you just cannot write off the Supercoach and his influence. I think they’ll adopt a real us-against-the-world mentality this year, and if they’re to do any good, they’ll need too. 

They need a big year from their outside backs; like, James Roberts becomes the season’s leading try-scorer, makes the NSW Blues, and finishes the year with a spot in the World Cup squad. It’s time he repays some of the faith Bennett’s put in him. I wouldn’t expect Benji Marshall to feature much in the top-grade, it reminds me of when Scott Prince went back there for one last season. He was in and out of the NRL team all season. 

Their obvious strength is in their forward pack, which is how they’ll win their games, but how the year for Ben Hunt unfolds will be intriguing. Already he has been labelled the most under-pressure player in the game by none other than the Eighth Immortal.

Too good of a coach to write off, look for some new faces to filter into the NRL side and inject some youth, energy and excitement into the side.

Canberra Raiders – Prediction: 5^th

The Green Machine must have a good start to the year without injured skipper Jarrod Croker. They are a side that can play with momentum and could be able to make a late charge for the finals, but the first six weeks without him could potentially decided where they finish. 

They’ve built well over the past two seasons under Ricky Stuart and now need to take the next step to push for a premiership. Hopefully they don’t read into the experts’ predictions who have them making the big dance in October. 

They’ve lost big Paul Vaughn to the Dragons but have picked up wrecking-ball Dave Taylor who returns from a stint in the south of France. Much will depend on the way the players Stuart seemed to bring the best out of in 2016 play, like BJ Leilua, Jordan Rapana and Junior Paulo.

If things go well for the Raiders, they’ll go really-well. But if they can’t find the same team spirit and form as 2016, then they might find themselves on holidays in September.

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs – Prediction: 11^th

One of the most under-fire clubs this season despite making the finals for the last five consecutive seasons under Des Hasler. They are a club that demands success, and after making two Grand Finals during those five years - as well as becoming one of the best run clubs in the game - they are desperate for a premiership at board level. 

Last year they were predicted to have a rough year, but after four rounds they’d won every game and were sitting on top of the table. But then their season seemed to just meander along. We saw glimpses of Moses Mbye’s ability, but their attacking style with forwards acting as play-makers appeared to have run its race. 

Des Hasler, however, is too smart, too cunning and too much of a Rugby League scientist not to conjure up a new way of playing, so I’m expecting some fresh or altered approaches. They still harbor one of the biggest and most fearsome packs in the game and if they can put last season behind them, they could surprise. 

Something drastic has to change at Belmore for me though, and I can’t see them making the eight this time round. But with Hasler in charge, it’s so hard to write them off.

Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks – Prediction: 9^th

The 2016 NRL Premiers will head into the season with a cloud of doubt hanging over them after the loss of linchpin hooker Michael Ennis and fullback Ben Barba. Almost $1.5 million dollars ripped out of their salary cap is going to leave a monumental hole, and with no real replacement in the hooker position it’s easy to suggest a slide down the ladder for the Sharks. 

With some of their Grand Final players missing, they went down to an under-strength Wigan in the World Club Challenge and if history is anything to go by, they will likely struggle in the early rounds after the long trip to England. Recent Premiers in the Cowboys, Souths, and the Roosters tended to do fairly well the year after by making the finals, but it will be a big task for Cronulla.

There’s some red-hot contenders this season and whether the Sharks have the depth to cover for their losses is the main talking point. What they do have, is some talented juniors continuing to filter through their system, and Jayden Brailey is at the top of that list. If Flanagan can manage to make some tweaks to help players like Brailey adapt to the side, they could make the finals.