Panthers on fire, but Raiders coming home hot

WITH three games left to play in the NRL regular season and just six points separating the sides between fourth and tenth, the run into the finals is smothered in scenario-riddled matches.

Perhaps none more so than the match-up between the Canberra Raiders and Penrith Panthers this Sunday at GIO Stadium.

Canberra must win every game remaining to make the 2017 Finals.

Penrith have notched half-a-dozen straight victories and are flying high again, but even more intriguingly, Canberra, who appeared destined to be 2017’s biggest flops, have found a glimmer of life again on the back of three-straight wins.

Both teams enjoyed a stellar, out-coming year in 2016, which led to the league world’s cumulative preseason prediction that they would challenge for this season’s title.

However, for indifferent reasons, neither side has kicked on from last season’s red-hot form.

Penrith began this season with just two wins from the opening nine rounds. By anyone’s assessment it was a disaster given how they had captured our attention just six months earlier.

The start might have been a shock, but their next four wins in the middle of the season would prove to be crucial. Essential, even.

They spent five games away from Pepper Stadium during that period and after losing two on the trot to the Cowboys and South Sydney, they returned to their spiritual home and haven’t lost a game since.

Six games, six wins. Five at Pepper Stadium.

Three of their best: Nathan Cleary, Josh Mansour and Reagan Campbell-Gillard.

They have the undisputed sensation of the season Nathan Cleary playing well beyond his years and in calculations for a representative call-up, and now their key stalwart Matt Moylan has returned from injury.

Under the guidance of Anthony Griffin, the play-making tutelage of club legend Greg Alexander and the behind the scenes advice of Phil Gould, Penrith could really give this competition a tilt if everything continues to fall into place like it has been.

While Penrith’s showing for the majority of this season has been mixed for a number of reasons, Canberra just haven’t clicked as they did in 2016.

They lost only Paul Vaughn and Edrick Lee in the offseason and kept virtually their entire line-up intact. They unearthed a potential franchise weapon in 18-year-old Nick Cotric and in somewhat of a surprise, handed Dave Taylor a train-and-trial contract.

Trying to work out where they’ve gone wrong this season is a tricky exercise, but identifying what went well for them in 2016 is an easy task.

The Raiders played a formidable and fear-invoking style of footy which allowed their attacking brilliance to shine as they won 13 from their last 15 games.

Comradery amongst the squad in the isolated nation’s capital under Ricky Stuart brought them together and momentum took them to within a dropped pass of the Grand Final.

Every team they faced was weary of playing the re-built Green Machine.

Even Paul Gallen was in tears of joy after the Sharks got out of GIO Stadium with a qualifying final win.

Perhaps the most endearing complement to Canberra was that only their own error prevented them from knocking off Melbourne in the preliminary final at the ‘Graveyard’ of AAMI Park.

It’s why should they win on Sunday afternoon, they must be considered a danger to any team that encounters them on their run into the finals series. That includes the Storm at AAMI Park in the final round of the season.

They might have left their run very, very late, but make no mistake, Canberra are coming home hot.

If they can build the confidence and find the spark that inspired their run last season, the Raiders are capable of beating anyone on their day.

Blake Austin found form against the Warriors last week, and will need to improve again on Sunday.

What a tantalising prospect the 2017 NRL Finals could be if the Green Machine make the cut.

It would only be a scrape-in eighth place finish, but goodness scarious, look out whoever runs fifth.

And for the Panthers, who knows what awaits for them.

A club still in a development phase, but well capable of going all the way should they play to their potential.

In last year’s semi-final Penrith went to Canberra and failed to match the Raiders, going down 22-12.

That match put them out of the finals series and they will be eager to revenge the loss in this Sunday’s blockbuster clash.

Raiders to be No. 1 in season’s middle third

As the NRL season begins to enter to its disjointed but highly important ‘middle-third’, a number of NRL teams will look to either capitalise on their origin-effected counterparts, or make use of their own origin-free squads.

The Raiders were arguably the best 'team' in 2016, despite no making the Grand Final

While the NRL’s perennial mid-season achievers – the New Zealand Warriors – will once again take advantage of their predominately Kiwi-based side; free of the Origin discomforts some clubs bear, the big-movers in 2017 will likely be the men from Australia’s capital.

If from round 10 to 19 is considered the middle of the season following rep-round and after the last bye, then Canberra went 6-2 last season.

But they then continued their charge to the end of the 2016 regular season with a remarkable 13 wins from their last 15 games, leaving them with an impressive 2^nd place finish.

Arguably just a dropped pass away from a Grand Final last year, the Raiders have seriously become a force since Ricky Stuart returned home in 2014. While they ran 15^th in his first season in charge, a 10^th place finish in 2015 preceded their near unchallengeable run home last year.

However the Green Machine have experienced a mixed start to 2017, falling to four teams who finished inside the Top Eight last season. Their wins coming against battlers; the Titans, Warriors, Tigers and Eels.

If they’re serious about making a play for the title this year, they need to begin to get their act together.

Having lost their last two games in tight fashion against unheralded Manly and the mixed-bag Bulldogs, there will be no doubt Coach Ricky Stuart will be looking for a highly-dominant performance against the Newcastle Knights this Sunday at McDonald Jones Stadium.

The fiercely competitive Ricky Stuart will know Canberra must make 2017 their year.

Given hope by many at the start of the season as genuine-contenders for the Premiership, the Raiders largely enjoyed a player turnover-free off season.

Losing just regular-starters Paul Vaughan and Edrick Lee from their main 17, along with Brenko Lee and Shaun Fensom from the extended squad, it could be argued Canberra were one of the best clubs who carried consistency amongst their playing squad through to this season.

The addition of Junior Paulo midway through last season proved to be a gamble that has paid dividends, with the troubled forward making huge improvements to his game. And, as a consequence, adding another element to the Raiders’ already formidable pack.

Never a club to be short of a man-mountain in their range of forwards, Stuart added the enigmatic Dave Taylor over the off-season, who returned from the South of France after a year in the English Super League.

Taylor has played just one-game for the Raiders this season, but knowing Ricky Stuart it would be foolish to think he hasn’t added Taylor to the squad without having a plan in place.

The ‘Volcano that has never erupted’ has returned to an extended bench for this Sunday’s clash against the Knights and if he plays, it could just be the extra piece of the puzzle the Raiders have been lacking.

Why is Dave Taylor in the Lime-Green in 2017?

While things won’t be easy as 2016 for the Raiders’ run home this season, they will need to turn their historically dismal away record around in their next four out of five games outside of the ACT.

Just seven out of their last 15 games this year will be at GIO Stadium and while you would expect them to make that a fortress during the colder winter months, currently sitting in 10^th place on the ladder will require a number of away wins to place them in a title-winning place at the end of the season.

With a playing-group that could be completely exempt from Origin football, Canberra look ready to make a mid-season move up the NRL ladder.

Should they do so, then perhaps their ever-improving squad can live up to its puff, learn the lessons from their Finals' knockout and make a committed crack of bringing a 4^th Premiership back to the Capital.

With Stuart at the helm – who was involved in winning all three – they probably have their best chance since 1994 to take home the trophy. 

NRL 2017: Broncos, Raiders, Bulldogs, Sharks.

Two of these clubs will miss the Top 8. Who will it be?

Brisbane Broncos – Prediction: 6^th

Arguably a make-or-break year for Wayne Bennett despite being the Godfather of the Red Hill franchise. Bad results early on will result in a tonne of media pressure for a club hell-bent on success. But in all honesty, with the experts writing them off, Bennett will be in his element. When I look at this Broncos squad, I think they’re in for a tough year. But you just cannot write off the Supercoach and his influence. I think they’ll adopt a real us-against-the-world mentality this year, and if they’re to do any good, they’ll need too. 

They need a big year from their outside backs; like, James Roberts becomes the season’s leading try-scorer, makes the NSW Blues, and finishes the year with a spot in the World Cup squad. It’s time he repays some of the faith Bennett’s put in him. I wouldn’t expect Benji Marshall to feature much in the top-grade, it reminds me of when Scott Prince went back there for one last season. He was in and out of the NRL team all season. 

Their obvious strength is in their forward pack, which is how they’ll win their games, but how the year for Ben Hunt unfolds will be intriguing. Already he has been labelled the most under-pressure player in the game by none other than the Eighth Immortal.

Too good of a coach to write off, look for some new faces to filter into the NRL side and inject some youth, energy and excitement into the side.

Canberra Raiders – Prediction: 5^th

The Green Machine must have a good start to the year without injured skipper Jarrod Croker. They are a side that can play with momentum and could be able to make a late charge for the finals, but the first six weeks without him could potentially decided where they finish. 

They’ve built well over the past two seasons under Ricky Stuart and now need to take the next step to push for a premiership. Hopefully they don’t read into the experts’ predictions who have them making the big dance in October. 

They’ve lost big Paul Vaughn to the Dragons but have picked up wrecking-ball Dave Taylor who returns from a stint in the south of France. Much will depend on the way the players Stuart seemed to bring the best out of in 2016 play, like BJ Leilua, Jordan Rapana and Junior Paulo.

If things go well for the Raiders, they’ll go really-well. But if they can’t find the same team spirit and form as 2016, then they might find themselves on holidays in September.

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs – Prediction: 11^th

One of the most under-fire clubs this season despite making the finals for the last five consecutive seasons under Des Hasler. They are a club that demands success, and after making two Grand Finals during those five years - as well as becoming one of the best run clubs in the game - they are desperate for a premiership at board level. 

Last year they were predicted to have a rough year, but after four rounds they’d won every game and were sitting on top of the table. But then their season seemed to just meander along. We saw glimpses of Moses Mbye’s ability, but their attacking style with forwards acting as play-makers appeared to have run its race. 

Des Hasler, however, is too smart, too cunning and too much of a Rugby League scientist not to conjure up a new way of playing, so I’m expecting some fresh or altered approaches. They still harbor one of the biggest and most fearsome packs in the game and if they can put last season behind them, they could surprise. 

Something drastic has to change at Belmore for me though, and I can’t see them making the eight this time round. But with Hasler in charge, it’s so hard to write them off.

Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks – Prediction: 9^th

The 2016 NRL Premiers will head into the season with a cloud of doubt hanging over them after the loss of linchpin hooker Michael Ennis and fullback Ben Barba. Almost $1.5 million dollars ripped out of their salary cap is going to leave a monumental hole, and with no real replacement in the hooker position it’s easy to suggest a slide down the ladder for the Sharks. 

With some of their Grand Final players missing, they went down to an under-strength Wigan in the World Club Challenge and if history is anything to go by, they will likely struggle in the early rounds after the long trip to England. Recent Premiers in the Cowboys, Souths, and the Roosters tended to do fairly well the year after by making the finals, but it will be a big task for Cronulla.

There’s some red-hot contenders this season and whether the Sharks have the depth to cover for their losses is the main talking point. What they do have, is some talented juniors continuing to filter through their system, and Jayden Brailey is at the top of that list. If Flanagan can manage to make some tweaks to help players like Brailey adapt to the side, they could make the finals.

The Final Four.

The top 4 sides of 2016.

Welcome to the final-four. A place all dream about before season’s start, a place many think they are a chance of getting to during the season, but a place only a handful are ever really a proper chance of making. The 2016 NRL Season has seen some of the mightiest fall, the formers dwindle, and the freshest creep up from obscurity. But the fabled final four for this year see’s truly the season’s best surviving. Melbourne, Canberra, Cronulla, and North Queensland all ran one through four in the regular season respectively, with day light running 5^th to 16^th. It’s only fitting that those four sides remain.

Melbourne’s season has almost been galvanised by the loss of Billy Slater. It’s as if Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk have had something to prove without him, such has been their determination since his loss. To whom; no-one knows. Indeed, it would be a curious insight to find out what drives those two phenomenal-players, who could now be considered warhorses of the Storm. A club whose leadership qualities are without peer. 

Instigated and set by Craig Bellamy over a number of formidable years, those standards have been modelled and driven by Smith, Slater and Cronk for the best part of a decade. What their intrinsic work ethics and characteristics do are raise the level of performance of those around them who may never reach such heights if they were not part of the revered Melbourne Storm culture. While Craig Bellamy might be the master of getting the most out of the ones from the bottom of the bucket, he’s adversary for Saturday night – Ricky Stuart – has crafted a club culture that has undergone wild change.

Not many teams go to Melbourne and win. 'The Graveyard' of AAMI Park. 

Long considered a team that struggled to sign players because of their location, the Canberra Raiders have fast become hot property. A few years ago they were throwing the hat, or rather their chequebook, into the ring for any available NRL star. Today, they are a club who has reinstalled its foundational values by embracing the fact no one wants to live in the nation’s capital. And in doing so they have put themselves one win away from their first Grand Final in 22 years. English no-names, first-grade rejects and players who were on the outer from a host of teams around the rugby league land, the Raiders have become an imperial force this year.

Almost re-born, or perhaps just re-morphed under Head Coach and club-legend ‘Sticky’ Stuart, the sting has been put back in the mighty Green Machine. What’s remarkable is that in a year when a reduced interchange seemingly swung the game’s favour in the way of the little man, Canberra have retained a monstrous pack with considerable success. Ten wins on the trot saw them walk into the NRL Finals and secure second place on the regular-season ladder. While they might have looked down and out, the return of their key-men – Hodgson and Austin – enabled them to bounce back with purpose. They are riding a telltale wave of confidence and will head to AAMI Park knowing they enjoy one of the best records of coming out alive from ‘The Graveyard’. Three wins from their last four clashes, Canberra will now lead a crusade to overthrow one of the league’s most dreaded opponents.

One of the best form turnarounds in years.
Hopeless in 2015, destructive in 2016. - Joseph 'BJ' Leilua

If Canberra happen to pass the storm, they may well run into another franchise that has managed to change its standing in the code, Cronulla. Incredibly, the last remaining Sydney club in the competition just a few years after it was considered most-likely for the scrapheap; either by extinction or expansion. What a difference a couple of years can make. If winning 16 games in a row doesn’t prove you’re ready to end your 49-year wait for a maiden premiership title, nothing does. Ironically, Canberra were the team who finished that freakish run of form in August with – no surprises here – a dubious video-referring dilemma marring the match.

While Head Coach Shane Flanagan was left ‘confused’ after that night, his meticulous approach to the Sharks’ preparation and performance since returning from a 12-month ban at the end of 2014 has left no-stone unturned. With recruiting that could be considered a masterstroke, Flanagan’s ability to jump on the right-buy at the right-time has been spot-on. If he didn’t hold a plumber’s license, you could swear the bloke was a real estate agent. But while an estate agent might have to flog a dead-horse, there is no-doubting the look and foundations of the Cronulla first-grade line-up. What you see is what you get. The whole squad has come together like a house-on-fire. If this is the Sharks side that looked like they were going to go up in flames a few years ago, they are now on the verge of securing a vital memento that would douse the doubters forever. You seriously get the feeling Paul Gallen is going to be up for the game of his career this weekend. You can just smell it in the air. 

Michael Ennis has been instrumental to the Sharks' success. 

But if the Sharks are going to make their own history, they’ll have to deal with the current premiers first. And if there if there is one guy you wouldn’t want to run into at this time of the year, it’s Johnathan Thurston. What class. What toughness. What magic. What a competitor. This guy is legitimately involved in every Cowboys play. Whether its chasing a runaway try, putting the stamp on one of their own, or diving on a loose ball that no-one else will. The Cowboys look to be the best positioned team to win back-to-back titles since Brisbane in 1993. A heroic win over their biggest rivals on home turf on Friday just gone will have them brimming with motivation to continue their run.

Having lost virtually none of their Grand Final winning side from 2015, the Cowboys have managed to retain the form that took them to their own maiden NRL Premiership. But will it prove too hard to go all the way again? 

None have done it, or even really come close in over 20 years. They will also return to the scene of one of rugby league's greatest conspiracies, Allianz Stadium (Sydney Football Stadium).

The ground that once; no twice, no sorry – three times, saw them ‘robbed’ of progressing deep into the NRL Finals because of hapless officiating by the games men-in-pink. 

The infamous ‘Hand of Foz’ in 2012, the ‘Seventh-tackle try’ against Cronulla in 2013, and the forward-pass ruling against the Roosters in 2014 after coming back from 30-nil down to almost snatch one of the game’s greatest-ever comebacks. 

It’s been 11 years since the North Queensland Cowboys won of that turf and it’s clear one side will be making history on Friday night when they take on the Sharks in what has to be one of the most-anticipated NRL preliminary finals in recent memory.

Johnathan Thurston coming to grips with being 'robbed' for the 3rd time.

Four teams currently remain, but only two can survive. Who will it be?

Sharks, Cowboys, Storm, or Raiders? 

Bring. It. On.